In the last post, I looked at nine of the most explosive wing scorers of the past 25 years. In a 40-point game, the ball has to go in the hole frequently, thus, TS% is quite good on average in such games. But what about removing scoring from the equation and simply looking at shooting volume?
Let’s use field goal attempts to examine what happens when these players shoot a lot, setting the cutoff at 30 or more FGA’s in a game. These are high-volume attempt games, in which efficiency counts more than lower volume games.
Returning to variance, here are the standard deviations for the same nine players in 30+ FGA games. “Stdev” is the standard deviation for the statistic to its left:
Again, LeBron James is a beacon of consistency, although he only shoots 30+ shots about once in every 20 games. LeBron also shoots the ball much, much, much better than anyone else when he shoots it this much. Note the ridiculous TS%.
So does that translate to team success? Actually, no. The ONLY player of these nine perimeter scoring-machines to see his team’s win% increase when he shoots the ball so much is…you guessed it, Allen Iverson. (Kudos if you actually guessed it.) Below are the results, along with frequency of 30-shot games and relative true shooting percentage (Rel TS%):*
This, despite Iverson having a break-even relative TS% (only Wilkins was worse relative to the league environment in such games). Which hits at the volume-efficiency tradeoff argument, because Iverson seems to be a player who can increase his volume — here, 95 of 561 games (16%) with over 30 attempts — and maintain similar efficiency to his normal standard. That’s not a ringing endorsement for Iverson as a team cog, but it certainly helps to justify his role and value in a system like Philadelphia’s.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Kobe Bryant, whose teams suffer mightily when he shoots the ball a lot. And, unfortunately, he’s done this about every eight games in his career. Bryant’s relative TS% in such games is almost 3% off his normal average in the same time period, and his scoring varies greatly. (How many players have a 40-point difference between their two highest FGA games?)
This is further evidence that good players can shoot too much. All of these stars, except for Allen Iverson, see a drop in their team win% in high-volume attempt games. Some might cry chicken-and-egg; Are the star players suddenly shooting this much because the team is losing, or are they losing because of so much shooting? There is ample evidence that one player going rogue, or worse, forcing shots doesn’t help an offense in the first place. Being behind is no excuse to abandon ship and undertake a flawed strategy.
Coming full circle, as far as I know, there isn’t a single advanced metric that considers variance. Nor is there an advanced metric that takes into account team strength in matters like variance and volume. Means are beneficial, but wins are tallied after 48 minutes. It’s not like overall point differential — while a great predictor — determines playoff seedings. Perhaps we should look beyond averages and weigh consistency and team strength against those averages in individual player analysis.
*Relative TS% and win% difference are weighted by year. For eg, if half of one’s 40-point games were in a single season, that one season’s TS% and win% differential accounted for half the weight in both categories.