In the last post, I examined different measures of variance in this generation’s Mt. Rushmore of wing players, LeBron, Kobe, Wade and Michael Jordan, all the while keeping in mind that it’s possible for inconsistent play to result in a few more wins on weak teams and fewer wins on good teams.
Of those four superstars, Kobe Bryant had the most games with “inefficient shooting” (under 50% True Shooting) and the fewest games with “efficient” shooting (over 60% True Shooting). However, we ignored the amount of shots he attempted when he was shooting poorly or shooting well. Turns out, all four players shoot more when they’re shooting poorly. And of the group, Dwyane Wade has the biggest increase in FGA’s per 36 minutes in his inefficient shooting games. In order of change in FGA’s per 36 from good games to bad:
- Wade +1.2 (17.6 in good shooting games to 18.8 in bad ones)
- Kobe +0.9 (19.1 to 20.1)
- Jordan +0.4 (21.7 to 22.1)
- LeBron +0.2 (18.7 to 18.9)
Before we focus on attempts any further, let’s first look at what happens when elite wings score a lot.
High Volume Scoring
- Michael Jordan
- Dominique Wilkins
- Allen Iverson
- Vince Carter
- Kobe Bryant
- Tracy McGrady
- Gilbert Arenas
- LeBron James
- Dwyane Wade
We have our four usual suspects and five more players who collectively amassed 35 All-Star game appearances and 26 All-NBA nods. Not too shabby. Here is the volume and frequency of 40-point games from this group during their prime scoring years:
Not surprisingly, the greatest scorer in NBA history, Michael Jordan, dropped 40 in nearly one in every five games during his prime years. Yikes. Although Jordan isn’t the most efficient of the bunch in such games. That would be Gilbert Arenas, who boasts nearly 70% True Shooting in his 40-pointers:*
As expected, all these players increase their efficiency in 40-point games. Although Kobe’s shooting numbers are surprisingly low, residing next to someone labeled as an inefficient “chucker,” Allen Iverson. So Iverson and Kobe must not be helping their teams win those big games as much as their contemporaries. Right?
It turns out that Iverson’s teams actually improved the most when he scored 40 or more!*
In Iverson’s 72 40-point games, Philadelphia’s win% improved by nearly 20%. That’s a startling contrast – about 16 extra wins over the course of a season. But why would Iverson’s teams improve so much when he has the lowest relative TS% of the lot?
If we buy the argument that AI’s 76er teams lacked a scorer who could create his own offense — certainly a reasonable stance — then Iverson’s scoring explosions shored up that offensive deficiency and buoyed them to victory more often than his run-of-the-mill 25 or 30-point nights, regardless of the drop in efficiency relative to his peers. (This somewhat echoes Paine’s Monte Carlo run.) Besides, AI’s shooting efficiency in such games is still significantly better than both the league average and his own career average.
There’s also further evidence here supporting the idea that weaker teams are helped more by big performances: Jordan played on the best teams in this time period (win% with MJ in the lineup of .713) and saw the smallest change in team W-L when going for 40. From 1990-1998, once Chicago ascended to elite team status, the Bulls were 68-20 when Michael went for 40 or more, for a .772 win%. Slightly worse than his team’s .779 win% (387-110) when he didn’t go for 40.
Tracy McGrady played on the second worst teams of these nine players (Arenas the worst). When McGrady was in Orlando (01-04) the Magic went 19-11 (.633) in his 40-pointers. 121-144 (.457) in his other games. Then he went to a better Houston Rocket team, and went 7-4 (.636) in 40-point games and 119-66 (.643) in other games.
The same reasoning explains why LA has faired so well despite Kobe’s lower efficiency numbers; Many of Bryant’s games were in 03, and 05-07 when his team needed volume scoring. LA was 50-24 (.676 win%) in his 40-point games in those years, while going 112-119 (.485) in Kobe’s non-40 games. (In the other seasons, a .724 win% in his 29 40-point games and a .715 win% in all other games.)
So these players are helping bad teams with big scoring nights and not doing much for good teams with the same outbursts. Balance, it seems, is indeed better.
Yet we haven’t completely addressed the issue of what happens when players shoot a lot. That is the topic of Part III…
*Relative TS% and win% difference are weighted by year. For eg, if half of one’s 40-point games were in a single season, that one season’s TS% and win% differential accounted for half the weight in both categories.